rob on the job
September 21st, 2006, 1:37:05 PM
What could be finer than to see Nancy Pelosi making a tearful farewell to Congress?
Nothing.
Granted, this is from a Republican operative, but it still raises some interesting points.
EXCERPT:
In 1998, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich confidently predicted that the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Bill Clinton’s sale of U.S. military secrets to China for campaign cash would net Republicans 25 House seats in November. When the all-Clinton-all-the-time approach actually produced a GOP net loss of 5, Gingrich had the joy of resigning.
As surprising as it may seem, Nancy Pelosi may soon get that same one-way ticket home.
Just weeks ago, all talk was of the imminent Democrat takeover of Congress. In mid-July, the USA Today/Gallop poll found a Democrat lead of 16 points in its generic congressional ballot test. Pelosi and pals were giddy with thinly-veiled (and occasionally crystal clear) talk of impeachment hearings, and Ned Lamont’s victory over the Senate’s sole remaining pro-defense Democrat, Joe Lieberman, fueled glee from Haight-Ashbury to Greenwich Village.
But something happened on the way to the inauguration.
This week’s USA Today/Gallop poll tells a very different story. George W. Bush, recently suffering approval ratings as low as 31 percent, has surged back to 44, doing immense harm to Democrats’ “make every race about Bush” strategy. Much of that groundswell comes from returning Republicans, earlier angry about, among other things, border security. Only 70 percent of Republicans approved of the President shortly after the May Day illegal immigrant rallies; 86 percent approve today.
But most devastating to the Dems, the generic congressional ballot, now tied: Republicans 48, Democrats 48.
This is a bigger number than it seems, for three reasons. First, as famed political handicapper Charlie Cook reminds us, the generic ballot tends to contain a bias toward Democrats of about five points. Second, it indicates that the Democrats’ strategy has backfired horribly, and there’s no reason to believe Republicans’ surge is complete.
But third, the 48-48 number does not and cannot adequately factor in voter turnout. And here, you’d be foolish to bet against the right.
link: http://www.chronwatch.com/content/contentDisplay.asp?aid=23837&catcode=13
Nothing.
Granted, this is from a Republican operative, but it still raises some interesting points.
EXCERPT:
In 1998, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich confidently predicted that the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Bill Clinton’s sale of U.S. military secrets to China for campaign cash would net Republicans 25 House seats in November. When the all-Clinton-all-the-time approach actually produced a GOP net loss of 5, Gingrich had the joy of resigning.
As surprising as it may seem, Nancy Pelosi may soon get that same one-way ticket home.
Just weeks ago, all talk was of the imminent Democrat takeover of Congress. In mid-July, the USA Today/Gallop poll found a Democrat lead of 16 points in its generic congressional ballot test. Pelosi and pals were giddy with thinly-veiled (and occasionally crystal clear) talk of impeachment hearings, and Ned Lamont’s victory over the Senate’s sole remaining pro-defense Democrat, Joe Lieberman, fueled glee from Haight-Ashbury to Greenwich Village.
But something happened on the way to the inauguration.
This week’s USA Today/Gallop poll tells a very different story. George W. Bush, recently suffering approval ratings as low as 31 percent, has surged back to 44, doing immense harm to Democrats’ “make every race about Bush” strategy. Much of that groundswell comes from returning Republicans, earlier angry about, among other things, border security. Only 70 percent of Republicans approved of the President shortly after the May Day illegal immigrant rallies; 86 percent approve today.
But most devastating to the Dems, the generic congressional ballot, now tied: Republicans 48, Democrats 48.
This is a bigger number than it seems, for three reasons. First, as famed political handicapper Charlie Cook reminds us, the generic ballot tends to contain a bias toward Democrats of about five points. Second, it indicates that the Democrats’ strategy has backfired horribly, and there’s no reason to believe Republicans’ surge is complete.
But third, the 48-48 number does not and cannot adequately factor in voter turnout. And here, you’d be foolish to bet against the right.
link: http://www.chronwatch.com/content/contentDisplay.asp?aid=23837&catcode=13