2nd round, no value by 13th pick

[kdhammond]

I keep running mock drafts and I am having a very difficult time seeing any good value available to the Bills in the 2nd round without them trading up.

1. I don't see any QB worth taking before the 5th round being available.

2. If they are lucky, they'll be looking at about the 9th best WR in the draft at this spot. After Devery Henderson there isn't a WR worth taking in the 2nd round and I am not sold on Henderson.

3. They **might** have a shot at TE Ben Watson, but is he worth that high a pick or is he Lonnie Johnson II?

4. Assuming that Jake Grove is gone, there isn't an interior OL that will be available to get excited about.

5. No DEs or DTs that will help at this spot. Maybe DE Marquise Hill, but his description sounds a lot like Ryan Denney, big tall, good against the run, lacks speed in the pass rush.

6. Weak year at LB

7. Only a bunch of small college prospects at CB available at that point.

8. No safety after Sean Taylor worth a top two round pick.

9. No OT worth even an early 3rd round pick.

I think this is the year to trade down in round one and move up in round 2. If they do that, they might get two decent players. \

If they move to the early 20s they might have a shot at a good interior OL like Smiley or Grove or a decent WR like Jenkins, Evans or Clayton. With a top 5 round 2 pick, they could still have a shot at a decent player.

[ksl66]

If TD passes on a QB in round 1, he's almost locking himself into taking a QB in round 2.

I remember hearing that when Dallas took Q. Carter in the 2nd everybody was suprised that they had reached. J. Jones came back later and said that they felt like they could've gotten Carter in the 3rd, but the way the contracts are set up 1st and 2nd round picks get automatic four year deals. He said when you're developing a QB you don't want to have to make the desicion after 3 years to give him big money or let him go into free-agency as a restricted free-agent.

Just something to think about. It leads me to think TD might trade down in round one, pick up an extra second and use that on a QB. Assuming they don't take one at 13.

[kdhammond]

But do you want Quincy Carter or someone like him starting for the Bills ever? I don't.

I don't think Schaub is a future good starting QB and I really don't think any of the other suspects will make it as even a half decent starter. Perhaps one will, but which of the ten or so turds will be the lucky one.

If the Bills wait till the 2nd round for a QB, they'll be looking for another QB in 2 years when this one doesn't pan out.

One more time, if all it took was coaching to "develop" a later round QB, then Travis Brown would certainly be a viable backup and potential starter. He is neither. Todd Collins was a mid-2nd round pick and he has had a nice long career as a backup, as long as he never has to play he is fine. If you check the scouting reports on Collins when he was coming out, you'll find he sounded a lot like the reports on Schaub.

Cody Pickett sounds to me like the next Bubby Brister. We don't need to even go into Josh Harris - he isn't worth mentioning...

[ksl66]

I don't want Carter I'm just saying that if the Bills find themselves looking at a QB in 2-3, then they should take one in round two, becuase of the length of the deal.

Of course you need talent, but it doesn't always show up at the combine.

[ksl66]

If we based everything on scouting reports than Jim Druckenmiller would've been the next Jim Kelly.

[TigerJ]

Regarding QBs, I've also heard that JP Losman, the only guy considered a reasonable value in the second round, is the closest thing in this draft to Rob Johnson, great athlete who doesn't always make the best decisions and tends to hold on to the ball too long. If Rivers is gone, and maybe even if he isn't, when the Bills pick at #13, I might be willing to live with the best WR or DE on the board at that point and take my chances that Schaub can become the next Tom Brady or Smoker the next whoever.

I have seen quite a few mocks predicting Losman will be Buffalo's pick in round 2. He does have a lot of potential, but I think he's going to need some great coaching to help him avoid the RJ syndrome.

[kdhammond]

I am no fan of Losman, either. Beacause of his physical tools, I doubt he'll be available when the Bills 2nd round pick comes, but I wouldn't want him anyway.

Ksl66: I never said that all of the highly regarded QBs pan out, so I don't understand your reply about Druckenmiller. What I have said is that very very few of these "developmental" QBs ever really "develop" into good starters or even decent backups.

[Vessel17]

Originally posted by kdhammond
I keep running mock drafts and I am having a very difficult time seeing any good value available to the Bills in the 2nd round without them trading up.

1. I don't see any QB worth taking before the 5th round being available.

2. If they are lucky, they'll be looking at about the 9th best WR in the draft at this spot. After Devery Henderson there isn't a WR worth taking in the 2nd round and I am not sold on Henderson.

3. They **might** have a shot at TE Ben Watson, but is he worth that high a pick or is he Lonnie Johnson II?

4. Assuming that Jake Grove is gone, there isn't an interior OL that will be available to get excited about.

5. No DEs or DTs that will help at this spot. Maybe DE Marquise Hill, but his description sounds a lot like Ryan Denney, big tall, good against the run, lacks speed in the pass rush.

6. Weak year at LB

7. Only a bunch of small college prospects at CB available at that point.

8. No safety after Sean Taylor worth a top two round pick.

9. No OT worth even an early 3rd round pick.

I think this is the year to trade down in round one and move up in round 2. If they do that, they might get two decent players. \

If they move to the early 20s they might have a shot at a good interior OL like Smiley or Grove or a decent WR like Jenkins, Evans or Clayton. With a top 5 round 2 pick, they could still have a shot at a decent player.

Wow I think you're looking at the 2nd round as an absolute worst case scenario for us. You're assuming that Losman is picked, that Jenkins, Evans, Jacobs, and Darling will all be gone at WR, that Grove is gone (that's high for a center... even one of Grove's caliber). I guess you assume that Smiley and Snee (both of whom I think will be picked after #32) will be gone. At FS you're not thinking about Sean Jones of GA or Matt Ware of UCLA. I just think that the possiblity of ALL of the above players to be a bit of a pessimistic stretch. Is it possible? Heck yeah! But I don't think it is probable enough to worry about it.

[kdhammond]

I don't think that Darling is worth a 2nd round pick. My bad for not being informed, but who is Jacobs? If you meant Michael Jenkins, I'd be happy with him in round 2, but I doubt that he'll
be available.

I expect Grove will be gone (he is the only remotely competent C prospect in this draft).

I think that Smiley will be gone. To me, Snee fits in with a group of a bout 30 guys who could go mid-2nd to end of 3rd round and nobody would notice.

I think that there will be a handful of very good players available at the top of the 2nd, but a pretty sizeable dropoff after that. I
really think that there could be 9 WRs taken before the Bills 2nd pick and I don't think picking the 10th best player at any position in the middle of the 2nd round is a great deal.

I acknowledge that there will be some decent players available in that spot, but they look to be just out of reach of getting a very good bargain in the 2nd.

I really think that they will be lucky to get a WR in the 2nd (without reaching).

[Mainejays]

Trade down in the first, trade up in the second sounds great to me. I do hope we end up with Jake Grove. Can you say Hull Jr?

[Henry4MVP]

Originally posted by Mainejays
Trade down in the first, trade up in the second sounds great to me. I do hope we end up with Jake Grove. Can you say Hull Jr?

Not about Jake Grove, I can't. He's a good player but that's an off comparison.

[Mainejays]

What I meant was, Grove can solidify the line the same way Hull did for twelve+ years. He would definitely be an improvement over Teague. I'll try to be a little more specific in the future.

[Henry4MVP]

You were specific enough, m'man, I just don't agree with you. :)

Grove isn't good enough to start for 12+ years. There are very, very few players these days that are. That's why Kent Hull was special. Jake Grove is a nice player but he's not that good.

[finsrclowns]

43 WILL very likely have a very good player that slips for whatever reason. The question is, will TD be looking for BPA, in which case I'm not concerned, or is he locking in on certain need areas, which may mean a reach. Because there are in fact more than 43 good to excellent players in this draft.

[twosheds]

Ah, 43. I did think we have the 11th pick in round 2 and 3. Might not matter much, but who knows?