Why pick a QB at 13?

[ksl66]

Will someone please explain what is the obsession w/taking a QB at 13?

Why does TD need to take a QB there, for my money Rivers is not a good value that high. I would like him a hell of alot more in the low 20's. And there seems to be a wide variety of opinions on Roethlisberger, it just baffles me that, given the Bills commitment to Bledsoe why fans seem to be in love with Rivers and Roethlisberger.

There is a gaping hole at LDE, were a rookie is more likely to have success, than almost any other position. They have two journeyman types fighting for the LG spot, a guy like Vernon Carey could definatly step in and help as a rookie. Even at SLB I saw nothing from Jeff Posey that makes me think he will ever be any better than adequate, one of the Miami LB's would fit in really well over there.

Basically, what I am saying do the Bills need to spend another 1st rounder, let alone the 13th pick overall on a guy who won't seethe field for atleast a year if not two.

[kdhammond]

I will not say that the Bills MUST pick a QB in round 1, but I will say the reasons that they should consider one are:

1. Bledsoe could be great again like 2 years ago, but if he is as bad as he was last year, the Bills will not win anything.

2. QB is the single most important position on the team. Note that I didn't say that great talent at multiple other offensive positions couldn't make up for not having a very top QB, but there isn't one single other offensive position that is as important on its own.

3. After Manning, Roethlisberger and Rivers, there are no likely future starting QBs in this draft. If someone wants to include Losman on that list, then I won't argue vehemently, but he won't be available at the Bills pick in round 2 either.

Schaub and company will be lucky to be Todd Collins/Todd Bauman, etc type long-term backups.

[ksl66]

I don't disagree with the idea that right now it only looks like there are three or four future starters in this draft, but that is right now. Recent history shows one or two of those guys will be a total bust and the others are not guaranteed to be stars. The one thing that the success of Brady, Delhomme and Warner suggest is that as an organization you need to find a QB that fits your system and personnel, not the other way around. The real trick is finding that guy, he may not measure out well or look great, but its more like the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

[kdhammond]

Originally posted by ksl66
I don't disagree with the idea that right now it only looks like there are three or four future starters in this draft, but that is right now. Recent history shows one or two of those guys will be a total bust and the others are not guaranteed to be stars. The one thing that the success of Brady, Delhomme and Warner suggest is that as an organization you need to find a QB that fits your system and personnel, not the other way around. The real trick is finding that guy, he may not measure out well or look great, but its more like the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Can't the same be said about all other positions too? The Bills should just trade down until all they have are 3rd, 4th and 5th round picks. In those rounds, they could surely find a bounty of "players that fit their system".

It isn't about systems and who fits what. It is about who wins the matchups and then systems matter as a secondary issue. Now if you wish to argue that it is better to have decent to good players at every position than to have great players at a few positions and have some weak starters at others, then there might be a discussion.

The Pats won the SB because they have a great defense and outstanding coaching. Tom Brady didn't lose two SBs, but he didn't have to win them, either. Anyway, I am not arguing that Brady isn't a very good QB. I will say that you can't expect to find QBs that good very often after round 1. I will also say that Delhomme is not a top QB and Carolina was in the SB because of their defense and Stephen Davis. They will not be back there again soon.

[ksl66]

Are you kidding, Brady did a little more than not loose two Super Bowls.

And QB is a little diffrent than other positions when it comes to projecting college to the pros. QB is not a position were the numbers always add up. Other positions like WR, you almost have to have a certain speed to be able to seperate. But at QB there is no prototype anymore.

The draft is little more than a crapshot when picking QB's, the percentage of finding a guy who can play in rounds 2-4 is pretty similar to guys who get taken in the first.

All I am saying is just because scounting services, Mel Kiper, me or you think a guy is nothing more than a career backup doesn't mean he can't start in this league. The opposite is also true just because Rivers had a great college career, a good Senior Bowl and doesn't mean he will be any better than Pickett in the NFL.

[kdhammond]

I concede that QB requires some less athletic ability than other positions, but it has its own set of required skills. I also don't think that it is fair to argue that the only thing that QB prospects are rated on is passing statistics and arm strength.

A QBs ability to lead, make quick decisions AND make the required throws are all important. Of course, the first two skills are somewhat subjective, but the same can be said for any other position. If all it took to be a great RB was size and speed, then Ron Dayne would be terrific. Heck, Shawn Bryson would have been tremendous. How do you measure a guy's "wiggle" subjectively? How about his ability to pick the correct holes or know when to cut back?

Same is true at DE where you can have all of the speed and strength in the world and not be a good pass rusher and conversely, I am sure that I could find a good pass rusher or two who wasn't the most athletic player alive.

I submit that evaluating prospects at ANY position has a level of subjectivity to it. I also contend that QB is not that much different from any other position in that regard.

While I acknowledge that there is a reasonably high "bust factor" among 1st round QBs, I strongly argue that it is MUCH MUCH higher among later round drafted QBs. About half of the starting QBs in the NFL are former #1 picks. Now, think about HOW MANY more QBs were drafted later and never made it than QBs that were picked in round 1. I am pretty sure that it is about a 8-to-1 or maybe 10-to-1 ratio of QBs drafted after the first and QBs drafted in the first. With that in mind, the fact that even half the starting QBs in the league were first round picks strongly suggests that they have a higher success rate by far.

You can check it out for yourself at drafthistory.com. Go there and look at the QBs selected in the 2nd round or later from 92 to 99 and you'll see that of the roughly 70 QBs picked in rounds 2 or later from those years, that **maybe** a total of 11 made it as either starters or decent long-term backups. Of those that became starters, only 2 or 3 were the type of starter that you would not be continuously looking to replace.

Again, I am not arguing that the Bills MUST pick a QB in round 1. I also am not completely arguing not to take a flyer on a mid-late round QB. But I am arguing that with Bledsoe nearing the end of his career (hopefully 2-3 productive years away) that we shouldn't count on some mid-round draft choice to be groomed for that time and be a good starter. The odds simply are not in favor of that happening.

[Mouldsie]

I loike Rivers b/c none of the other QB;s in this draft look like starters and Philip Rivers has the intabgibles necessary to be an NFL QB. Great pocket awarness. He is super smart and deadly accurate. He is a leader, and most of all he is CLUTCH. He's everything you want out of your QB.

[superman]

I agree. We need a QB but doesnt mean he has to be the 13th pick overall. Everyone forgets that there are good football players after the first 32 in the country.

[mykiljonz]

Even at SLB I saw nothing from Jeff Posey that makes me think he will ever be any better than adequate, one of the Miami LB's would fit in really well over there.

--Do you really think there are ANY LB's that should be drafted at #13, I cannot think of any worth that pick. We need someone, yes, but to start in place of Denney, not a LB.



Vernon Carey could definatly step in and help as a rookie

--While I think Carey will be a good player, again is he worth the #13 pick? No. Trade down if you want him, no way he is worth 13.



I saw nothing from Jeff Posey that makes me think he will ever be any better than adequate

--I agree here. My wife went to Southern and I saw him play quite often as was never THAT impressed. Although he was CHEAP, and for the price is a good player. I was glad when I heard the price tag on him. Remember he did not play LB in college also, so has had to adjust his game.

[Mouldsie]

Posey is fine. Great in coverage, makes big plays, can rush the passer....

[ksl66]

What big plays did Posey make last year? Aside from knocking Carr out of the Houston game, which wound up bringing in the Buffalo Bill killer: Tony Banks. He's not a big play maker and how often did you see TE's wide open in the end zone. He didn't look to good in coverage.