Bills Mock- Trading down

[finsrclowns]

trade down with NE from 13 to 21 nets choice 56, rd 2
trade down from 21 to 28 with Tenn nets choice 92, rd 3

Round 1, choice 28, Lee Evans, WR, Wisconsin. Great speed and hands, allows Reed to move back to the slot.

Round 2, choice 43, Derrick Straight, CB, OK. Future starter at CBwhen/if Clements leaves or Vincent moves to safety- candidate for FS position this year.

Round 2, choice 56, Justin Smiley, OG, Alabama. Day 1 starter at LG.

Round 3, choice 74, Matt Schaub, QB, VA. Schaub could end up being a larger version of Tom Brady.

Round 3, choice 92, Nate Kaeding, K, IA. The Ryan Lindell era ends here.

Round 4, choice 108, Jason Peters, TE, Ark. Massive TE with soft hands for 2 TE sets and backup to Campbell.

Round 5, choice 139, Lousaka Polite, FB, Pitt. A solid all around FB and ST player.

Round 7, choice 197, Katrell Curry, S, GA. Injury questions but great upside.

Round 7, choice 204, Landon Johnson, OLB, Purdue. Undersized but productive player for depth and ST's.

[35Pete]

Stay put and draft Phillip Rivers.

[Dr. Atomic]

That would be a nice draft, except that I'm not sure that either Strait or Smiley drop down into those slots.

I do think that our best bet is to trade down though.

There are some hot prospects at 13, and something for almost everybody.

Want a QB? Rivers should be there. Want a DT? Harris, Wilford, Starks. At least one of them will be there. Maybe two. Want a LB? Williams, Dansby & Vilma should be there. Want a CB? Gamble might be there. Strait & Poole certainly will be. Want a RB? Take your pick. Jackson or Jones. At least one should be there. Maybe both. Want a huge O-Lineman? Andrews could easily be there. Wide Reciever? Reggie Williams & Rashaun Woods should be around.

Problem number one is that we have a lot of problems.

We need help on the offensive line.

We need another wide receiver to take the pressure off of Moulds.

We need a pass rusher.

We could use a quality tight end for both blocking & receiving.

And plenty of people think we need a young QB.

No matter how careful you are, there's always a chance that your #1 busts. If our eggs are all in that basket, we are in a heap of trouble.

Problem number two is that there are a lot of teams like us - teams with lots of holes - and they are probably trying to move down as well.

But everyone knows this is a deep draft at several positions (WR, DT and TE in particular), so it's not going to be very easy to get teams to swap.

[finsrclowns]

I chose NE for the 1st trade up because they covet Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon State and they're not sure he'll make it to 21. Good chance he'll be there at 13.

You're right there's no way to know whether Straight and Smiley will last until those spots- they do on some mocks and not on others. Straight is a bit undersized which is why he may slip, but my take is he's Antoine Winfield with better hands. 50/50 on Smiley- if we get him and he adds a bit of bulk he could be a monster with speed and agility to burn.

I took a pass on the DE issue- if you're going to deal with that you could take a flyer in rd 3 instead of my kicker idea, from what I've read this kicker Kaeding is the real deal though and I don't think Lindell is. But if the Bills got my top 4 picks they'd have to be elated- that's why trading down is a tempting idea- if you could add 2 or 3 immediate starters and some quality depth you've had a great draft.

[Mouldsie]

I'm not a Shaub fan

[finsrclowns]

Originally posted by MOULDSROCKS
I'm not a Shaub fan

Why not? He could be a bigger version of Tom Brady. He's bright, had a productive career, good decision maker, accurate. They say he's not a great athlete and can't throw the deep ball well, but they also said the same things about Brady which was why he lasted until the 6th round.

[Mouldsie]

I'm not so sure about his accuracy.

[ksl66]

I don't know about taking Kaeding in the 3rd, I agree that TD needs to bring in some competetion for Lindell, but you better be damm sure that he will be able to unseat Lindell or you're wasting a day one pick. Too many needs to go there that early if you ask me.

[finsrclowns]

Originally posted by ksl66
I don't know about taking Kaeding in the 3rd, I agree that TD needs to bring in some competetion for Lindell, but you better be damm sure that he will be able to unseat Lindell or you're wasting a day one pick. Too many needs to go there that early if you ask me.

You may be right. But when I see a kicker rated as a possible 2nd rounder it gets my attention.

[finsrclowns]

Originally posted by MOULDSROCKS
I'm not so sure about his accuracy.


2003 stats

CO Att %Com Yds TD Int
281 403 69.7 2952 18 10

2002 stats

Att Comp Int Pct Yards TD
418 288 7 68.9 2976 28

:?:

[Henry4MVP]

If you think Schaub is the next Tom Brady, you're gonna end up disappointed.

[Henry4MVP]

Originally posted by finsrclowns
Why not? He could be a bigger version of Tom Brady. He's bright, had a productive career, good decision maker, accurate. They say he's not a great athlete and can't throw the deep ball well, but they also said the same things about Brady which was why he lasted until the 6th round.

Schaub's career is all of two full seasons. He couldn't beat out Bryson Spinner two years ago for the starting job and Spinner absolutely, unequivacally, and completely sucked. Schaub beat him out after dropping the opener, came back and played very well for a few, and then sat down again after a string of awful games.

As a side note, I can't believe that I'm the one who's downing Schaub 'round here. Sheesh.

[Poz51]

Very good plan, but I'm really not in favor of it. Like others, I'm not high on Matt Schaub. The only quarterbacks I like, besides the Big 3, are Losman, Pickett, and Smoker. I like Lee Evans as a college player, but I've got an odd feeling that he won't turn out to be as good as evberybody thinks. With Strait, I feel that CB isn't as big of a need as TE, but if Troupe and Watson are off the board, I could go for it.

[finsrclowns]

Originally posted by Henry4MVP
Schaub's career is all of two full seasons. He couldn't beat out Bryson Spinner two years ago for the starting job and Spinner absolutely, unequivacally, and completely sucked. Schaub beat him out after dropping the opener, came back and played very well for a few, and then sat down again after a string of awful games.

As a side note, I can't believe that I'm the one who's downing Schaub 'round here. Sheesh.

2 full seasons is enough if they're good seasons. Heck with the new rules we may be pining for the days when guys had 2 years starting in college. Drew Henson played in 8 games, hasn't played in 3, and teams, including the Bills were interested. And Brady only started a couple years at Michigan and impressed people so much he lasted until the 6th round. I watched HIM a number of times at Michigan and the knock then was just average arm strength and not a great athlete. Sound familiar?

You've watched the games. How's he played in the 2 years as full time starter? Those #'s for 2 years look very good to me- almost 70% completion rate, 46 TD's and only 17 int's, almost 6000 yards. Maybe Spinner was the coach's nephew!:D

[Henry4MVP]

Trust me, Spinner definitely isn't related to Al Groh.

Let me lay it out for you as best as I can.

Schaub has been good. Groh has installed an efficient offense that really works due the fact that Virginia has an excellent, athletic offensive line. UVA tends to get good OL/TE prospects. [School for smart kids, hurls :D]

We've got a couple of talented tailbacks in Wali Lundy and Alvin Pearman. Heath Miller at TE will be in the NFL year after next, hopefully on the Bills. :) Our WR core is kind of weak in speed but they have excellent hands.

So Schaub has targets. Schaub has a great system. Schaub is well-coached.

Physically, he's big and in pretty good shape. He can get rid of the ball quickly. He is very accurate on his shorter throws. He used to lock onto his primary receiver all the time, now this is a pretty infrequent problem. His checkdowns have improved tremendously. And his teammates respect him.

On the minus side, he's not accurate on his deeper tosses. He can't get away from defenders on the next level. He's got a penchant for turnovers in the worst possibly scenarios; even though he doesn't throw a lot of picks, they're damn near all in the second half and in close games. Schaub can take a little too long to go through his progressions, in the NFL that will be magnified.

I really, really don't think he's comparable to Tom Brady.

IMHO, he's suited to a West Coast style offense due to his good accuracy and release, where in a few years he could be a solid backup who can step in and be respectable if your starter goes down.

Also IMHO, Buffalo needs someone who in a year can step up and be a starter, and hopefully a damn good one. Our best bets in this draft seem to be Roethlisberger and Rivers, and I have no idea if either one will be available to us. If we go with a late first day/early second day prospect, I'd be more than happy with Schaub. But I see him more as AVP's replacement rather than Drew's.

[Mouldsie]

70% completion off a lot of short passes to the TE, like henryb said his deeper throws are not accurate.

[finsrclowns]

Originally posted by MOULDSROCKS
70% completion off a lot of short passes to the TE, like henryb said his deeper throws are not accurate.

70% is still very good. And it moves the chains. They did a study on Tom Brady's passes and well over half were 5 yards or less. He's done ok. And until last year he completed very few over 20 yards. Sometimes it takes time to develop the touch for long passes. And BTW, if Schaub had a great arm, he'd be in the top 10, not the third round.