kdhammond
February 20th, 2003, 5:28:16 PM
I have been following the draft very closely for over 15 years. I have read everything that I could get my hands on, watched college football and watched the all-star games many times each year.
I love following this stuff! It is great fun and gives me a harmless hobby. Below is how I see the draft, after all of these years...
I love reading about the draft: Kiper, Pro Football Weekly, Draft Insiders Digest, Draft Scrapbook, Drug Store List, Sporting News Draft Guide, the internet... I love it all!
However, even the best of these draft publications (in my opinion Pro Football Weekly's Joel Buschbaum, Sporting News and Draft Insiders Digest) don't spend anywhere near the time scouting the prospects as any of the NFL teams' personnel departments (except possibly Cincinnati's :-) )
That being said, we need to keep in mind that even the NFL teams can't agree on the probability of success for prospects. There are now 32 teams in the NFL and it is probably a very safe bet to say that there are 32 different rankings of the top 100 players available in the draft.
Why is that?
The most important reason is that player evaluation is a subjective process. Here are at least some of the things that must be subjectively evaluated for each player:
Level of competition - How do you compare a DE who has 7 sacks against the top competition in the SEC against someone with 12 sacks in the Big East? How about someone with 17 sacks in the Big Sky or even lower level of competition?
Quality of teammates - If a player is surrounded by great talent, the opposition can't concentrate on stopping just him. If a player is on a weaker team, the opposition can put two or three players on him or scheme against him in other ways.
Fit of player to scheme - This is two pronged. First, how well did the player fit his college team's scheme? Was he a good run blocker playing on a passing team? Was he a good player who has decent-to-good pro potential, but was stuck behind some superstar in college? (AJ Feehley,won several games at QB for the Eagles last year – he was a backup QB at Oregon his senior year behind Joey Harrington). How well will he fit his pro team's scheme?
Athletic Ability, technique potential - Does the player have the athletic ability to compete on the pro level? Has he maxed out his athletic ability or can he get bigger, faster, stronger, improve his receiving skills or technique?
Injury Concerns - Has the player had minor or major injuries that concern the pros?
Mental Aptitude - The NFL game is more complex and faster than college. Does the player have the ability to learn the more complex schemes? Can he make split second decisions on the field based on what he sees? Some players can be very smart, but it takes them a split second too long to process what they see on the field and react. Other players might not be so smart, but they have the instincts to see what is happening and just react.
Heart/Determination/Work Ethic - How hard of a worker is the player? Many players don't have to work that hard in college because they are just more talented than others. Others work very hard. If the player worked hard in college, is he maxed out? Was that his edge and will it translate to the NFL (tied in with Athletic Ability)? Will the guy that didn't have to work hard to succeed in college work hard enough to succeed in the NFL?
Position Projections - Not as common of a concern as the above, but can the player who was an undersized DE play OLB in the NFL? There are very different skills involved in position switches plus a big learning curve.
Measureables - How important are measureables? Teams measure strength, speed, quickness, jumping ability, etc. How accurate are these measures when the testing is done by different people under different conditions (grass, turf, gym floor, indoor, outdoors, human variation with stop watch, quality of player start in 40, players health on the day of testing, Wonderlich intelligence testing....)
Those are just some of the factors in grading each player. I am sure that there are more...
Some other things that play into evaluations and setting up "draft boards" are:
What are the relative importance of players playing different positions? Obviously, QBs are very important. Is a left offensive tackle more important than a DT? Is the pass rushing DE more important than the RB? What about a great player at a less important position like Center or FB?
Team Needs - How much weight should a team ascribe to its needs versus drafting the highest rated players according to their draft board? Should a team pick a lower rated player at a position of need or take their highest rated player at a position or lesser need?
Runs in the draft - How does a team pick given the relative strength of players available in the draft? Should the team react to runs in the draft (ie, boy oh boy the OTs are going fast, we had better grab one with our next pick if we want one at all)?
From the above simplistic look at the draft, it is obvious that there are many many variables. No team looks at it the same way. It is very subjective. The draft is all about picking players who your scouts feel have the highest PROBABILITY of success under the conditions that are unique to your evaluations, team needs and schemes... NO PLAYER IS A SLAM DUNK GUARANTEE.
So when the debates rage on Mike Williams or Bryant McKinnie, Joey Harrington, trade down, trade up... Enjoy it, but realize that there are no absolutes. No GM is a complete buffoon. Certainly, there are no teams who were so clueless that they didn't consider the player that Mel Kiper (or insert your favorite prognosticator) had the highest rated. Does that mean that the NFL GMs are always right? No. Does that mean that Kiper or others never do a better job than the teams? No. But I do think that it is safe to say that the teams all spend a great deal of time and money evaluating players. More than any of the draft gurus do.
Just my $.02 worth. Enjoy the draft and the debates!
I love following this stuff! It is great fun and gives me a harmless hobby. Below is how I see the draft, after all of these years...
I love reading about the draft: Kiper, Pro Football Weekly, Draft Insiders Digest, Draft Scrapbook, Drug Store List, Sporting News Draft Guide, the internet... I love it all!
However, even the best of these draft publications (in my opinion Pro Football Weekly's Joel Buschbaum, Sporting News and Draft Insiders Digest) don't spend anywhere near the time scouting the prospects as any of the NFL teams' personnel departments (except possibly Cincinnati's :-) )
That being said, we need to keep in mind that even the NFL teams can't agree on the probability of success for prospects. There are now 32 teams in the NFL and it is probably a very safe bet to say that there are 32 different rankings of the top 100 players available in the draft.
Why is that?
The most important reason is that player evaluation is a subjective process. Here are at least some of the things that must be subjectively evaluated for each player:
Level of competition - How do you compare a DE who has 7 sacks against the top competition in the SEC against someone with 12 sacks in the Big East? How about someone with 17 sacks in the Big Sky or even lower level of competition?
Quality of teammates - If a player is surrounded by great talent, the opposition can't concentrate on stopping just him. If a player is on a weaker team, the opposition can put two or three players on him or scheme against him in other ways.
Fit of player to scheme - This is two pronged. First, how well did the player fit his college team's scheme? Was he a good run blocker playing on a passing team? Was he a good player who has decent-to-good pro potential, but was stuck behind some superstar in college? (AJ Feehley,won several games at QB for the Eagles last year – he was a backup QB at Oregon his senior year behind Joey Harrington). How well will he fit his pro team's scheme?
Athletic Ability, technique potential - Does the player have the athletic ability to compete on the pro level? Has he maxed out his athletic ability or can he get bigger, faster, stronger, improve his receiving skills or technique?
Injury Concerns - Has the player had minor or major injuries that concern the pros?
Mental Aptitude - The NFL game is more complex and faster than college. Does the player have the ability to learn the more complex schemes? Can he make split second decisions on the field based on what he sees? Some players can be very smart, but it takes them a split second too long to process what they see on the field and react. Other players might not be so smart, but they have the instincts to see what is happening and just react.
Heart/Determination/Work Ethic - How hard of a worker is the player? Many players don't have to work that hard in college because they are just more talented than others. Others work very hard. If the player worked hard in college, is he maxed out? Was that his edge and will it translate to the NFL (tied in with Athletic Ability)? Will the guy that didn't have to work hard to succeed in college work hard enough to succeed in the NFL?
Position Projections - Not as common of a concern as the above, but can the player who was an undersized DE play OLB in the NFL? There are very different skills involved in position switches plus a big learning curve.
Measureables - How important are measureables? Teams measure strength, speed, quickness, jumping ability, etc. How accurate are these measures when the testing is done by different people under different conditions (grass, turf, gym floor, indoor, outdoors, human variation with stop watch, quality of player start in 40, players health on the day of testing, Wonderlich intelligence testing....)
Those are just some of the factors in grading each player. I am sure that there are more...
Some other things that play into evaluations and setting up "draft boards" are:
What are the relative importance of players playing different positions? Obviously, QBs are very important. Is a left offensive tackle more important than a DT? Is the pass rushing DE more important than the RB? What about a great player at a less important position like Center or FB?
Team Needs - How much weight should a team ascribe to its needs versus drafting the highest rated players according to their draft board? Should a team pick a lower rated player at a position of need or take their highest rated player at a position or lesser need?
Runs in the draft - How does a team pick given the relative strength of players available in the draft? Should the team react to runs in the draft (ie, boy oh boy the OTs are going fast, we had better grab one with our next pick if we want one at all)?
From the above simplistic look at the draft, it is obvious that there are many many variables. No team looks at it the same way. It is very subjective. The draft is all about picking players who your scouts feel have the highest PROBABILITY of success under the conditions that are unique to your evaluations, team needs and schemes... NO PLAYER IS A SLAM DUNK GUARANTEE.
So when the debates rage on Mike Williams or Bryant McKinnie, Joey Harrington, trade down, trade up... Enjoy it, but realize that there are no absolutes. No GM is a complete buffoon. Certainly, there are no teams who were so clueless that they didn't consider the player that Mel Kiper (or insert your favorite prognosticator) had the highest rated. Does that mean that the NFL GMs are always right? No. Does that mean that Kiper or others never do a better job than the teams? No. But I do think that it is safe to say that the teams all spend a great deal of time and money evaluating players. More than any of the draft gurus do.
Just my $.02 worth. Enjoy the draft and the debates!