reeves84
May 31st, 2002, 8:43:43 AM
Statistical model tackles World Cup predictions
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992353
A new statistical model of the World Cup football tournament could provide a more accurate set of predictions than either bookmakers and television pundits, according to Henry Stott, a mathematician at the University of Warwick, UK.
Stott has used a modelling technique more commonly applied to financial risk assessment to predict the outcome of every game in the 2002 competition, as well as the ultimate winners
Although many bookmakers' favourites Argentina were still given the greatest chance of winning the tournament (13.2%), the model provides a number of surprising results. Brazil (9.3%) were given better odds than France (8.7%), whereas bookmakers rate France's chances almost twice as high. England (6.9%) were also given a better chance of triumphing than many people's hot tip Italy (6.7%).
In the case of Brazil, Stott believes recent poor results have overly affected people's assessment of the team's chances. He cautions that his probabilities and bookmaker's odds are only comparable in relative terms, because bookmakers reduce their prices in order to give them a profit.
The biggest surprise came in individual matches. Stott's system gave a much higher chance that underdogs would upset strong teams than bookmakers. For example, South Africa are given only a 10% chance of defeating Spain by most bookmakers, while Stott calculated this probability to be 28%.
Portugal (7.9%) turned out to be the fourth most likely team to become world champions, after Argentina, Brazil and France. The team with the lowest probability of ultimate victory chance is China with a tiny 0.3 % chance, though this means they are still overpriced at bookmakers at 750-1.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992353
A new statistical model of the World Cup football tournament could provide a more accurate set of predictions than either bookmakers and television pundits, according to Henry Stott, a mathematician at the University of Warwick, UK.
Stott has used a modelling technique more commonly applied to financial risk assessment to predict the outcome of every game in the 2002 competition, as well as the ultimate winners
Although many bookmakers' favourites Argentina were still given the greatest chance of winning the tournament (13.2%), the model provides a number of surprising results. Brazil (9.3%) were given better odds than France (8.7%), whereas bookmakers rate France's chances almost twice as high. England (6.9%) were also given a better chance of triumphing than many people's hot tip Italy (6.7%).
In the case of Brazil, Stott believes recent poor results have overly affected people's assessment of the team's chances. He cautions that his probabilities and bookmaker's odds are only comparable in relative terms, because bookmakers reduce their prices in order to give them a profit.
The biggest surprise came in individual matches. Stott's system gave a much higher chance that underdogs would upset strong teams than bookmakers. For example, South Africa are given only a 10% chance of defeating Spain by most bookmakers, while Stott calculated this probability to be 28%.
Portugal (7.9%) turned out to be the fourth most likely team to become world champions, after Argentina, Brazil and France. The team with the lowest probability of ultimate victory chance is China with a tiny 0.3 % chance, though this means they are still overpriced at bookmakers at 750-1.