RE: "Some Notes from Rivals radio and Mayock" thread. What we would get in exchange.

[1968_bills_fan]

Adding to another thread which suggests that we might have trade possibilities for our #11 first round pick with Detriot, KC, Philly or Seattle.
According to the "trade value chart" we might net the following in exchange for this draft pick. (Note that sometimes one of the picks offered is not from this year's draft but from next years draft instead. Often the next-year's-pick is a one-round-higher pick)

Trade with Detriot and get Detriots #15 in rounds 1,3 & 6.
Overall picks lose #11......................GET #15, 79 and 175.

Trade with Kanasa City and get KC #17 picks in rounds 1, 3,4,5 & 6.
Overall picks lose #11.......................GET #17, 113, 145 177 & 209.

Trade with Philly and get #19 pick in rounds 1 & 2. Lose Bills 5th rounder.
Overall picks lose #11 and #139.........GET #19 and 51

Trade with Seattle and get Seattle's #25 in rounds 1,2,3 & 4.
Overall picks lose #11........................GET #25, 57, 89 and 52.

In summary the first two trades bring us a extra 3rd rounder and change.
Philly brings us an extra 1st and second rounder.
Seattle brings us an extra 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder.

I think that players in the first two rounds got a real good chance to be an impact player this year, so I'm hoping for Philly or Seattle. We still should get our wide receiver, but could pick up a starting CB and TE.

[ricogarion]

Excellent informative post thanks 1968_bills_fan. I would be very happy with the return from either scenario.

[imontoya]

nice info. I'd prefer the Lions trade, don't want to go too far down.

[CoachC.]

I'd be shocked if anyone gave up as much as you have up there to move up to #11. Why would KC give up a 3,4,5, and 6 just to move up 8 spots? The #11 trade history doesn't suggest anything other than an extra 3rd:

http://www.buffalorange.com/showthread.php?t=137567

Getting more than a 3rd to move down a few spots......or maybe one 2nd if it's farther would be highway robbery if the Bills pulled that off, no matter what the chart says.

[cooterhooter]

I am uneasy about any of these scenarios if OBD is as high on Devin Thomas as I am. The bears could grab him at 14, or the Texans at 18. If they do deal they mights as well go for the Chiefs offer since I doubt Detrioit at 15 or Arizona at 16 are interested in any wr. Its the safest highest return if they are willing to risk the Bears go rb and not wr.

[Whitner20]

the bears are not going WR in the first, if they do they won't have an O-line to keep Grossman upright

[cooterhooter]

I'm not saying they will, but they are the most likely of the teams in between the 11 and 17.

[1968_bills_fan]

I]COLOR="SeaGreen"]I'd be shocked if anyone gave up as much as you have up there to move up to #11. Why would KC give up a 3,4,5, and 6 just to move up 8 spots? The #11 trade history doesn't suggest anything other than an extra 3rd:

http://www.buffalorange.com/showthread.php?t=137567[/COLOR]
Getting more than a 3rd to move down a few spots......or maybe one 2nd if it's farther would be highway robbery if the Bills pulled that off, no matter what the chart says.[/I][/COLOR]

Hey, I'm just adding up numbers from the draft value chart.
#11 = 1250 points
overall picks 17, 113, 145, 177, 209, #17 in rounds 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are worth: #17 in round
round 1 = 950
(round 2 = 420)
round 3 = 185
round 4 = 68
round 5 = 34
round 6 = 21
round 7 = 8
--------------
1266 points

Opps, I shoudl have omitted round 6 (21 points), so you should have
rounds 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 = 1245 points compared to 1250 points (pick #11).

Notice that rounds 4,5 & 7 add up to 110 points. Teams usually want to have a balance of lower round picks, to stock the training camps and on the other side not to overstock the training camp with too many players. Usually they might offer a next year's 3rd round pick instead of this year's 4,5,7 pick. They discount for it being next year's is abotu 60% (e.g. =110/185 = 59.4%

So, what you should expect to see is the following:

KC gets our #11 first round pick.

Buffalo gets KC's #17 first and 3rd round pick and their third round pick next year.

If you know of things far off of this, let me know- usually the chart is pretty well followed.

[fmr60]

Much too speculative for my taste. Let's try to report something concrete.

[blazedgame]

I am uneasy about any of these scenarios if OBD is as high on Devin Thomas as I am. The bears could grab him at 14, or the Texans at 18. If they do deal they mights as well go for the Chiefs offer since I doubt Detrioit at 15 or Arizona at 16 are interested in any wr. Its the safest highest return if they are willing to risk the Bears go rb and not wr.

I read that the reports saying the bears worked out devin thomas were bogus.

I say trade down if at all possible. The WR's in the top of the draft are all of the same ilk. It seems like they each have a slight knock on them. I'm happy if we walk away with thomas, sweed, hardy, or even nelson. The only guy I don't want is kelly because i think all his work out shannanigans were lame