1968_bills_fan
March 21st, 2008, 2:35:31 PM
The "draft value trade charts" are a good predictor of how teams trade draft picks. Anytime I have taken a trade and worked it out with the Chart, it seems to be very close. (If you know of cases where this wasn't true- feel free to quote them). Anyway, if the Bills trade down from their #11 picks, they can expect to get a hell of a lot more than an extra 3rd round pick. Here is how the math works out for trading down from the #11 spot in the 1st round. The Bills have 1250 draft chart value points to exchange and they roughly (+/- 30->50 points) should expect to get:
Bills lose pick #11 and get
#12 pick in rounds 1, _, _, _, 5, _, and 7 .... or
#13 pick in rounds 1, _, _, 4, 5, _, and _ .... or
#14 pick in rounds 1, _, _, 4, 5, 6, and _ .... or
#15 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, _, _, 6, and _ .... or
#16 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, 4, _, _, and _ .... or
#17 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
#18 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, _, _, and _
................................and lose pick in 2nd round or
#19 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, _, _,- _, and _
................................and lose 5th round pick... or
#20 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, _, 5, _, and _ .... or
#21 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, 4, _, 6, and _ .... or
#22 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
#23 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, _, _, and _ .... or
#24 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, 5, _, and _ .... or
#25 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, _, _, and _ .... or
#26 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
By #27 there is not enough points in this years draft for this team to move up to the Buffalo #11 pick unless they start using next year's draft picks or players to make up the difference. Next year's draft picks seem to be discounted about 30 to 40% and agreements are made to make up the "change" if the team does better or worse than expected in that draft's position.
In summary, if we drop down up to 3 places, we just get a bunch of 4ths and 5ths.
If we drop down 4, 5 or 6 places we pick up a 3rd round pick and "change"
If we drop down 8 places we pick up a 2nd round pick and "change"
If we drop down 12 places we pick up a 2nd and 3rd
and if we drop down 15 places we probably pick up an extra 1st round pick.
We should drop down at least 8 places and probably pick up about the same player we would pick at #11.
Bills lose pick #11 and get
#12 pick in rounds 1, _, _, _, 5, _, and 7 .... or
#13 pick in rounds 1, _, _, 4, 5, _, and _ .... or
#14 pick in rounds 1, _, _, 4, 5, 6, and _ .... or
#15 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, _, _, 6, and _ .... or
#16 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, 4, _, _, and _ .... or
#17 pick in rounds 1, _, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
#18 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, _, _, and _
................................and lose pick in 2nd round or
#19 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, _, _,- _, and _
................................and lose 5th round pick... or
#20 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, _, 5, _, and _ .... or
#21 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, 4, _, 6, and _ .... or
#22 pick in rounds 1, 2, _, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
#23 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, _, _, and _ .... or
#24 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, _, 5, _, and _ .... or
#25 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, _, _, and _ .... or
#26 pick in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 .... or
By #27 there is not enough points in this years draft for this team to move up to the Buffalo #11 pick unless they start using next year's draft picks or players to make up the difference. Next year's draft picks seem to be discounted about 30 to 40% and agreements are made to make up the "change" if the team does better or worse than expected in that draft's position.
In summary, if we drop down up to 3 places, we just get a bunch of 4ths and 5ths.
If we drop down 4, 5 or 6 places we pick up a 3rd round pick and "change"
If we drop down 8 places we pick up a 2nd round pick and "change"
If we drop down 12 places we pick up a 2nd and 3rd
and if we drop down 15 places we probably pick up an extra 1st round pick.
We should drop down at least 8 places and probably pick up about the same player we would pick at #11.