Draft Strategy Based on Supply and Demand

[jimmifli]

Some positions are tougher to fill than others. For instance, quarterback. There are only a handful of teams that wouldn't love to add a great field general. You don't need to be a genius like Norman Einstein (thank you Joe Theismann) to see there is a high demand for quarterbacks. Other positions require two starters which doubles the demand, such as WR.

But on the other end of the equation is supply. Finding a good QB isn't easy. Fortunately, there is a large supply of human beings that meet the physical requirements needed to play QB in the NFL. Maybe a million men in America meet the requirements. Some were lucky enough to start playing football, to receive good coaching, to drive themselves to get better, and to be lucky enough to make it through college with both knees, at least one arm and an unscrambled brain.

Wide receiver is a little different. Every team would love a fast, giant ball hawk. But, there aren't many humans that are 6'5" and run a 4:40. There are even fewer that meet the additional requirements of an NFL receiver. There simply isn't enough supply to meet the demand.

All positions have an "ideal size", but there are many exceptions to the ideal that are able to be successful; small wide receivers, short quarterbacks, light linebackers. The ideal sizes may be statistically rare, but the ranges of body types that can be successful is large enough that there will always be a supply of players that will excel at their given position. So even though there aren't many 6'5" receivers, there are still lots of good receivers.

There are two positions that are different. The tackles. The physical requirements needed to be an NFL tackle are so rare, the ideal size is so far from a normal human. There simply aren't enough people born that meet the requirements. A good athlete can overcome deficient size at many positions but at defensive tackle, if you aren't 300lbs and lighting fast you aren't going to have an impact. Same goes at OT. Too light they get pushed around, too slow the get blown by.

While there is a demand for every position, there isn't a supply of every position. The most limited in supply are 300lb athletes. God just doesn't make many. That's who we should draft. A 300lb athlete.


Coles notes: The Bills need to do what it takes to add a 300lb athlete to this roster because they won't get many chances to do it.

[jimmifli]

Will the Bills have any 300lb athletes fall to them in the draft?

[TigerJ]

Sedrick Ellis is a possibliity in round one. He's pretty athletic and right around 300 lbs. That's about it.

[gilchristfan]

Before the national title game, Jimmi Johnson was talking about Dorsey, and whether he should be the first pick in the draft.

He made it a point that DT is the hardest position to fill besides QB. It also seems to have almost as high of a 1st round bust ratio as QB. Warren Sapps and Tommie Harris' don't come around every year. Believe it or not, I think McCargo's actually close, he just needs more consistency. The first step and reaction time he has is really rare.

I'm with Merk, and what he said a few weeks ago. AT 11 this year, I want a difference maker, not just a solid player. It can come at DE, DT, LB or WR. We've got 3 picks in the next 2 rounds to get "solid" players. We should be able to find an exceptional athlete at one of those positions with the 11th pick.

[jimmifli]

Before the national title game, Jimmi Johnson was talking about Dorsey, and whether he should be the first pick in the draft.

He made it a point that DT is the hardest position to fill besides QB. It also seems to have almost as high of a 1st round bust ratio as QB. Warren Sapps and Tommie Harris' don't come around every year. Believe it or not, I think McCargo's actually close, he just needs more consistency. The first step and reaction time he has is really rare.

I'm with Merk, and what he said a few weeks ago. AT 11 this year, I want a difference maker, not just a solid player. It can come at DE, DT, LB or WR. We've got 3 picks in the next 2 rounds to get "solid" players. We should be able to find an exceptional athlete at one of those positions with the 11th pick.
LB would be a waste. Big WR's are rare enough I could live with that, but I don't see a single WR turning this ship around.

The defense is pretty close though, a dominant defensive lineman could be enough to put the unit into the top 10 (points not yards), which might have been enough to squeak into the playoffs.

[jimmifli]

Here are the DT's taken in the top 11 picks since 2000:

Corey Simon
Gerard Warren
Richard Seymour
Ryan Sims
John Henderson
Dewayne Robertson
Amobi Okoye

Not really an earth shattering list, but I think the reason it's not earth shattering is because there are about 60 starting DT's and less than a dozen of them are game changers.

It's rare. I don't know much about Ellis, but if he's a game changer....

[FknGvna]

I don't think LB would be a waste. Because if it wasn't for Poz how would you've rated our corps last year? Connor staying on the field looks better than Ellis rotating. Ellison was a weakest link.

[jimmifli]

I don't think LB would be a waste. Because if it wasn't for Poz how would you've rated our corps last year? Connor staying on the field looks better than Ellis rotating. Ellison was a weakest link.
What round was Poz drafted in?

[FknGvna]

Second, but I think Connor is a first rounder. I just think Poz and Connor would be like Simpson and Whitner on the field. It could get to the point where they wouldn't have to talk to each other, they just look at each other and know what the other is thinking. That would be sweet.

[TigerJ]

LB would be a waste. Big WR's are rare enough I could live with that, but I don't see a single WR turning this ship around.

The defense is pretty close though, a dominant defensive lineman could be enough to put the unit into the top 10 (points not yards), which might have been enough to squeak into the playoffs.

I think Kelly, Bowman Sweed and Hardy are all pretty good big receivers, and I wouldn't mind any one of them being a Bill, but every one is a reach at #11 overall. Sedrick Ellis is probably an appropriate value at #11. The one drawback of Ellis is that he would move McCargo to nose, and I'm not convinced McCargo would be as solid a player as a nose tackle. He's better suited to the under tackle rush position like Ellis.

[jimmifli]

Second, but I think Connor is a first rounder. I just think Poz and Connor would be like Simpson and Whitner on the field. It could get to the point where they wouldn't have to talk to each other, they just look at each other and know what the other is thinking. That would be sweet.
That's my point though, there are more 220lb - 250lb athletes than there are 300lb athletes. So if we get a chance to draft a 300lb freak of nature, we should.

[SpikedLemonade]

While there is a demand for every position, there isn't a supply of every position. The most limited in supply are 300lb athletes. God just doesn't make many. That's who we should draft. A 300lb athlete.


Coles notes: The Bills need to do what it takes to add a 300lb athlete to this roster because they won't get many chances to do it.

That has been my motto for the past few years.

I couldn't agree more.

[1968_bills_fan]

I think Kelly, Bowman Sweed and Hardy are all pretty good big receivers, and I wouldn't mind any one of them being a Bill, but every one is a reach at #11 overall. Sedrick Ellis is probably an appropriate value at #11. The one drawback of Ellis is that he would move McCargo to nose, and I'm not convinced McCargo would be as solid a player as a nose tackle. He's better suited to the under tackle rush position like Ellis.

But that's where you should have a good coach and change the defense to make best use of what you have. The other teams take a while to catch onto what you are doing and longer still to how to best defense it. Over the past 25 years there have been a lot of new wrinkels in the defense and offense- based upon rule changes and upon invention. Get the good player first then decide how to use him. The system should fit the players, not the other way around. (e..g you have a QB who runs and rolls out well but you try to make him a pocket timing-pattern QB).
If we don't get Ellis at #11 (or #8 by trading up with a 3rd round pick) I agree on trading down and getting one of the big WR with our lower 1st round pick.

[coastal]

Calais Campbell... roll the dice.

[Callaway]

Before the national title game, Jimmi Johnson was talking about Dorsey, and whether he should be the first pick in the draft.

He made it a point that DT is the hardest position to fill besides QB. It also seems to have almost as high of a 1st round bust ratio as QB. Warren Sapps and Tommie Harris' don't come around every year. Believe it or not, I think McCargo's actually close, he just needs more consistency. The first step and reaction time he has is really rare.

I'm with Merk, and what he said a few weeks ago. AT 11 this year, I want a difference maker, not just a solid player. It can come at DE, DT, LB or WR. We've got 3 picks in the next 2 rounds to get "solid" players. We should be able to find an exceptional athlete at one of those positions with the 11th pick.


I agree 100% we need to get a playmaker at 11. Someone who teams have to game plan for

[gilchristfan]

Calais Campbell... roll the dice.



It would be a roll, or at least a pretty good calculated risk, IMO. Campbell was the other one I was watching clips of the other night, him and Ellis. There are some pretty good highlight clips of Miami '07 on Youtube.

His hand and arm tech looks terrible. He looks like he's always going chest to chest with the OT, and there's no way a guy 6'8" should be keeping his arms in. All that leverage was going to waste. But it can be taught. Teaching him an inside move is a necessity too. When taught, it would probably be devastating.

Strengthwise, he definitely looks strong enough. There were a number of plays where he rocked the OT back. He also looks like he could put on 20-30 lbs without getting fat.

I wouldn't hate the pick. I wouldn't hate a Vernon Gholston pick either, at least until the HGH suspension comes down.

[Buffalo13]

Jimmifli is right, drafting a LB with the 11th pick would be aweful. We need help on the DL and in the Secondary before we go LB. You can get great LBs who can start right away in the 2nd - 4th rounds.

I want a WR with our round one pick, but if none are available I say we go DT or CB. In fact, if Ellis looks as good as advertised and somehow falls to the ravens at 8, I'd try to trade up with them and grab Ellis before the Bengals take him.

[Smapdi]

No LB at 11 please. As many have stated, we need an impact player on the defensive line.

That leaves either: Gholston, Campbell, or Ellis

Ideally, I'd like this team to move Schobel or Kelsay and stick in Gholston. He'd be a perfect fit in the Cover 2. He's also a freak of nature athletically.

Ellis plays the same position as McCargo. Maybe if they told McCargo to put on 15 lbs and move over this would be a good pick.

Im not sold on Campbell. He does have some size though and I would think he would be pretty stout against the run.

I just pray they don't use the pick on a CB