Initial Bills 4 round Mock

[Buffalo1]

My initial Mock, this is how I think it may go for Buffalo as of now:

1 Miami -DE Chris Long
2 St. Louis - OT Jake Long
3 Oakland - RB Darren McFadden
4 Atlanta - QB Matt Ryan
5 Kansas City - DT Glenn Dorsey
6 New York Jets - DE Vernon Gholston
7 New England (from San Francisco) - LB Dan Connor
8 Baltimore - QB Andre Woodson
9 Cincinnati - DT Sedrick Ellis
10 New Orleans – CB Mike Jenkins
11 Buffalo- OLB Keith Rivers
12 Denver - FS Ken Phillips
13 Carolina - OT Ryan Clady
14 Chicago – QB Brian Brohm
15 Detroit - OT Sam Baker
16 Arizona – CB Leodis McKelvin
17 Minnesota- DE Calais Campbell
18 Houston –RB Jonathan Stewart
19 Philadelphia - CB Reggie Smith (can also play safety)
20 Tampa Bay- RB Rashard Mendenhall
21 Washington - CB Aqib Talib (can also play safety)
22 Dallas (from Cleveland) - WR DeSean Jackson
23 Pittsburgh –OT Jeff Otah (could be losing Faneca and Starks)
24 Tennessee – CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (he’s rising)
25 Seattle – TE Fred Davis (Pollard is crap and lost the playoff game by himself)
26 Jacksonville –DE Quinton Groves
27 San Diego - DT Kentwan Balmer
28 Dallas –RB Felix Jones
29 San Francisco (from Indianapolis)– WR Malcolm Kelly
30 Green Bay – CB Antoine Cason
31 New York Giants - WR Mario Manningham


Round 2: - Buffalo drafts TE Martellus Bennett/Fred Davis
Round 3: - Buffalo drafts WR Early Doucet/Bowman/Bennett/ Nelson
Round 3b: - Buffalo drafts CB Porter/Dwight Lowery/Godfrey
Round 4: - Buffalo drafts FB Schmitt/Hillis
Round 5: - Buffalo drafts C Adam Spieker/Legursky/Sullivan
Round 5: - Buffalo drafts DT James McClinton/Marcus Harrison
Round 6: - Buffalo drafts DE Greyson Gunheim/Jeremy Thompson
Round 7: - Buffalo drafts LB JoLonn Dunbar/ Jordan Dizon
Round 7: - Buffalo drafts CB Jack Ikegwuonu

:bills:

[FknGvna]

I'm hoping Connor becomes an early second so we could trade up like last year. Using our first to get Malcolm Kelly.

[Buffalo1]

I really don't think Connor will drop out of the top 15, if we don't take him then you can be almost certain Denver takes him right behind us. I am a little sketchy about drafting WR's in the first round they seem to have a low success rate and take a while to develop. Connor would be a day one starter and an impact player for years and thats what you need with your high first round pick.

[MikePeca27]

I really don't think Connor will drop out of the top 15, if we don't take him then you can be almost certain Denver takes him right behind us. I am a little sketchy about drafting WR's in the first round they seem to have a low success rate and take a while to develop. Connor would be a day one starter and an impact player for years and thats what you need with your high first round pick.

That is not entirely true. While there are good WRs found later in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Players like Randy Moss, Harrison, Wayne, Holt, Fitzgerald, where all 1st round picks. Based on the last two drafts I trust that this staff will be able to find a solid player. We have a lot of needs and there will be an impact player sitting at the 11th pick.

[FknGvna]

Kelly Bowman Hardy don't seem too Moss-Fitzgerald-like.

[Buffalo1]

Most WR's are not impact players right off the bat, of course they very well could be in the years to follow. Look at Calvin Johnson, everyone said that he was the best WR to be drafted in the last 10yrs?, nfl experts were ejaculating in their pants talking about his combination of size, speed and hands and he did not do much in a pass happy offense opposite Roy Williams. I am not opposed to taking a WR in round 1, I just think it is a higher risk and it may take a couple years to reap the rewards, which again is not a bad thing since we are "rebuilding".

[FinNasty]

My initial Mock, this is how I think it may go for Buffalo as of now:

1 Miami - DT Glenn Dorsey
2 St. Louis - OT Jake Long
3 New York Jets - DE Chris Long
4 Atlanta - QB Matt Ryan
5 Kansas City - RB Darren McFadden
6 Oakland - DT Sedrick Ellis
7 New England (from San Francisco) - ILB James Laurinaitis
8 Baltimore - QB Andre Woodson
9 Cincinnati - DE Vernon Gholston
10 New Orleans - CB Malcolm Jenkins
11 Buffalo- LB Dan Connor (Ellison plays hard but gets manhandled, insert DC)
12 Denver - DE Calais Campbell
13 Carolina - CB Aqib Talib
14 Chicago – QB Brian Brohm
15 Detroit - OT Sam Baker
16 Arizona –FS Ken Phillips
17 Minnesota- WR Malcolm Kelly
18 Houston –RB Jonathan Stewart
19 Philadelphia - WR DeSean Jackson
20 Tampa Bay- RB Rashard Mendenhall
21 Washington - CB Reggie Smith
22 Dallas (from Cleveland) - WR James Hardy
23 Seattle - RB Felix Jones
24 Pittsburgh – OT Ryan Clady
25 Tennessee - WR Early Doucet
26 New York Giants - WR Mario Manningham
27 San Diego - DT Frank Okam
28 Jacksonville - CB Antoine Cason
29 Green Bay – OLB Keith Rivers
30 Dallas – CB Mike Jenkins
31 San Francisco (from Indianapolis)– DE Derrick Harvey

Round 2 – Buffalo drafts best WR/TE available Limas Sweed (Big #2 WR)
Round 3 - Buffalo drafts best TE/CB available (Carlson,Tamme, Rucker, Chevis jackson,Lowery, Charles Godfrey,Terrel thomas) and Dre Moore, DT
Round 4 – buffalo drafts Adam Kraus G/C

As a Fin fan... I can tell you that I honestly think we will be leaning towards Chris Long over Dorsey...

[Buffalo1]

really, how could you pass on a DT like that? Isn't DT a bigger need than DE also?

[jaymitch84]

Maybe the other 9 teams in the top 10 will lean away from Dorsey too...:D

[Buffalo1]

that would be a pleasant surprise.

[FinNasty]

really, how could you pass on a DT like that? Isn't DT a bigger need than DE also?

DL is the primary need... regardless of where on the line.

And with a 3-4 defense, which I'm sure we will move to exclusively with Parcells here... Long is probably the better fit...

Both are extremely dominant defensive linemen... however, Long is more of a fit for a 3-4 defense, as he would be a stud at either 3-4 DE (add a few pounds) or 3-4 OLB (lose a few pounds)...


We need a true NT... and I'm not so sure Dorsey fits that? If we took Dorsey, it would probably be to play 3-4 DE anyway... which he could definatly do...

[Buffalo1]

I will take that into consideration when I update my mock in the future.

[The Chosen]

DL is the primary need... regardless of where on the line.

And with a 3-4 defense, which I'm sure we will move to exclusively with Parcells here... Long is probably the better fit...

Both are extremely dominant defensive linemen... however, Long is more of a fit for a 3-4 defense, as he would be a stud at either 3-4 DE (add a few pounds) or 3-4 OLB (lose a few pounds)...


We need a true NT... and I'm not so sure Dorsey fits that? If we took Dorsey, it would probably be to play 3-4 DE anyway... which he could definatly do...

Very good points. I am sure most draft "experts" don't take that into consideration. You've convinced me.

[FinNasty]

Very good points. I am sure most draft "experts" don't take that into consideration. You've convinced me.

Of course they dont...

They just see a good defensive lineman, and say "Fins need DL... I'm going to slot him there!"

You would think that they would atleast take a look at how the player would fit into the defensive schemes...


They will catch up eventually...

[Buffalo1]

My mock is now updated with Nasty's dolfin insight.

[FinNasty]

My mock is now updated with Nasty's dolfin insight.

Glad I could help... ;)

[l3ills]

My initial Mock, this is how I think it may go for Buffalo as of now:

1 Miami -DE Chris Long
2 St. Louis - OT Jake Long
3 New York Jets - RB Darren McFadden
4 Atlanta - QB Matt Ryan
5 Kansas City - DT Glenn Dorsey
6 Oakland - DT Sedrick Ellis
7 New England (from San Francisco) - ILB James Laurinaitis
8 Baltimore - QB Andre Woodson
9 Cincinnati - DE Vernon Gholston
10 New Orleans - CB Malcolm Jenkins
11 Buffalo- LB Dan Connor (Ellison plays hard but gets manhandled, insert DC)
12 Denver - DE Calais Campbell
13 Carolina - CB Aqib Talib
14 Chicago – QB Brian Brohm
15 Detroit - OT Sam Baker
16 Arizona –FS Ken Phillips
17 Minnesota- WR Malcolm Kelly
18 Houston –RB Jonathan Stewart
19 Philadelphia - WR DeSean Jackson
20 Tampa Bay- RB Rashard Mendenhall
21 Washington - CB Reggie Smith
22 Dallas (from Cleveland) - WR James Hardy
23 Seattle - RB Felix Jones
24 Pittsburgh – OT Ryan Clady
25 Tennessee - WR Early Doucet
26 New York Giants - WR Mario Manningham
27 San Diego - DT Frank Okam
28 Jacksonville - CB Antoine Cason
29 Green Bay – OLB Keith Rivers
30 Dallas – CB Mike Jenkins
31 San Francisco (from Indianapolis)– DE Derrick Harvey

Round 2 – Buffalo drafts best WR/TE available Limas Sweed (Big #2 WR)
Round 3 - Buffalo drafts best TE/CB available (Carlson,Tamme, Rucker, Chevis jackson, Lowery, Charles Godfrey,Terrel thomas) and
Round 3b - Dre Moore, DT
Round 4 – buffalo drafts Adam Kraus G/C



Ummm...your draft order is a bit messed up.. The Jets pick 6th Atlanta/KC/Oak ahead of them.

[Buffalo1]

fixed

[MikePeca27]

Wow if Dorsey falls to 5 that is nuts. What is the value of the 5th pick?

[jaymitch84]

Wow if Dorsey falls to 5 that is nuts. What is the value of the 5th pick?

According to this...

http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp

The Bills could trade 1st and 2nd round picks, or 1st/3rd/3rd/7th.

Dorsey would be a fantastic addition, but that'd be giving up a lot.

[JLB]

According to this...

http://www.theredzone.org/2006/draft/draftvaluechart.asp

The Bills could trade 1st and 2nd round picks, or 1st/3rd/3rd/7th.

Dorsey would be a fantastic addition, but that'd be giving up a lot.

I just wouldn't give up multiple picks right now.

Maybe a player we wanted to ditch "Peerless" along with an exchange of picks.

Just no picks from this draft class.

[CJBS]

I think Baltimore is very content with Troy Smith and wnat to see what he can do and with that and aging LB's and not sure if they will keep Suggs LB might be useful for them

[stepsukie]

You'll all see. After the combine, Greg Carr will move up in the rankings...just watch...that is...if he decides to enter the draft...HOOGLY BOOGLY!!! :flip:

[Buffalo13]

I would not be happy with Dan Connor in the first. I think that WR is our biggest need and after that it's CB and DT. We have a solid LB crew and we could add a LB in the third who could probably displace Ellison (although i don't think he's that bad).

I suppose if we had to go best available...but I'm not sure he will be. By the time the workouts are over, some better atheletes will probably pass him just like they did Poz.

[Buffalo1]

I think Baltimore is very content with Troy Smith and wnat to see what he can do and with that and aging LB's and not sure if they will keep Suggs LB might be useful for them

thats taking a big risk, I would think with the firing of Billick the new coach will likely want to put his stamp on the team and not rest his fate in Troy Smith, better to have a backup plan rather than look stupid if Troy gets hurt or falls on his face. Plus there will be good LB's in the second, you get very few shots at drafting a franchise QB.

[wpod]

While I have some different ideas I think we're on the same page conceptually. Ask yourself how your plans would evolve if Ralph Wilson OKed signing one new starter on each side of the ball (possibly with limitations on how high the salary could go, making signing WLB Lance Briggs difficult). I think you understand the Bills' needs and priorities well, and have some good candidates in mind. I just don't think they need to solve every single need through the draft alone, even with 10 picks. I think at a bare minimum they will sign at least one new starter overall in Free Agency.

[Buffalo1]

I agree they will make a move in FA and that will allow for more flexibility in the draft. This mock does not take FA'cy into consideration, there are already too many unknowns. I am hoping they can address the #2 WR position in FA'cy.

[FinNasty]

Buffalo1... one more thing I forgot to tell you...

Keep an eye out for Gholston being Miami's pick. He is going to be that edge rusher as a 3-4 OLB... in the mold of a Demarcus Ware or Shawn Merriman. Its one of the most important positions in the 3-4 defense. With Jason Taylor only having a couple of years left (and thats assuming he is even on our team next year), Gholston definatly could be a very strong canidate for the #1 spot... especially if he has a great combine...

Also, keep in mind that Parcells drafted 2 first round OLBs while he was in Dallas (Ware and Spencer)...

My wishlist currently looks like:

1. Chris Long
2. Vernon Gholston


3. Glenn Dorsey








4. Jake Long

[jaymitch84]

Buffalo1... one more thing I forgot to tell you...

Keep an eye out for Gholston being Miami's pick. He is going to be that edge rusher as a 3-4 OLB... in the mold of a Demarcus Ware or Shawn Merriman. Its one of the most important positions in the 3-4 defense. With Jason Taylor only having a couple of years left (and thats assuming he is even on our team next year), Gholston definatly could be a very strong canidate for the #1 spot... especially if he has a great combine...

Also, keep in mind that Parcells drafted 2 first round OLBs while he was in Dallas (Ware and Spencer)...

My wishlist currently looks like:

1. Chris Long
2. Vernon Gholston


3. Glenn Dorsey








4. Jake Long






5. jaymitch84

[jaymitch84]

While I have some different ideas I think we're on the same page conceptually. Ask yourself how your plans would evolve if Ralph Wilson OKed signing one new starter on each side of the ball (possibly with limitations on how high the salary could go, making signing WLB Lance Briggs difficult). I think you understand the Bills' needs and priorities well, and have some good candidates in mind. I just don't think they need to solve every single need through the draft alone, even with 10 picks. I think at a bare minimum they will sign at least one new starter overall in Free Agency.

This is why the mocks that come out now are still wayyy too early to actually be right, it is just fun projecting.

In mid-late March after we have combine numbers and teams have made their big FA signings, then I think it'll become easier - at least in our minds - to make better mock drafts (seems easier, but we will all be wrong anyway).

[Buffalo1]

Its never easy to predict when Buffalo is on the clock

[FinNasty]

5. jaymitch84

Can you throw the ball?

[jaymitch84]

Can you throw the ball?

I can throw a tight spiral upwards of 30 yards.

That would be an upgrade though, huh? ;)

[FinNasty]

I can throw a tight spiral upwards of 30 yards.

That would be an upgrade though, huh? ;)

Eh... its not the short stuff that we need. We need someone who can hit Ginn deep...

Sorry Jay, you've been removed from my big board... ;)

[Buffalo1]

Maybe your team should draft Matt Ryan.

[FinNasty]

Maybe your team should draft Matt Ryan.

At #1 overall? No thanks...

He isnt worth a top 5 selection IMO...



Beck definatly has the arm strength and zip... I'm just hoping he has the accuracy.

[Buffalo1]

but can he recieve a snap without fumbling? thats the question. Does he have small or something?

[CJBS]

thats taking a big risk, I would think with the firing of Billick the new coach will likely want to put his stamp on the team and not rest his fate in Troy Smith, better to have a backup plan rather than look stupid if Troy gets hurt or falls on his face. Plus there will be good LB's in the second, you get very few shots at drafting a franchise QB.



If you look at the top QB's in the league right now.... I believe McNabb and Manning are the only 2 first rounders. Brady was a 6th, Favre was a 2nd rounder I believe maybe late first. Drew Brees a 2nd rounder, There are a few other round 1's but Rothlisberger still hasnt proven to be a clear superstar, He did win SB but so did Trent Dilfer. For every 1 rounder franchise QB there are 2-3 Ryan Leafs, Akili smiths. Troy only did what Young did proved he could win in college.

[FinNasty]

but can he recieve a snap without fumbling? thats the question. Does he have small or something?

Its just nerves... its not like he fumbled a ton of snaps...

[MikePeca27]

I have to say that DT would be our biggest need right now. I would love to back the Brink truck up to Haynesworth and then go after Jenkins if he is there or Kelly.

[FinNasty]

If you look at the top QB's in the league right now.... I believe McNabb and Manning are the only 2 first rounders. Brady was a 6th, Favre was a 2nd rounder I believe maybe late first. Drew Brees a 2nd rounder, There are a few other round 1's but Rothlisberger still hasnt proven to be a clear superstar, He did win SB but so did Trent Dilfer. For every 1 rounder franchise QB there are 2-3 Ryan Leafs, Akili smiths. Troy only did what Young did proved he could win in college.

Carson Palmer was a 1st rounder

[Buffalo1]

If you look at the top QB's in the league right now.... I believe McNabb and Manning are the only 2 first rounders. Brady was a 6th, Favre was a 2nd rounder I believe maybe late first. Drew Brees a 2nd rounder, There are a few other round 1's but Rothlisberger still hasnt proven to be a clear superstar, He did win SB but so did Trent Dilfer. For every 1 rounder franchise QB there are 2-3 Ryan Leafs, Akili smiths. Troy only did what Young did proved he could win in college.

So you don't think teams should draft QB's in the first round? I'm sorry if I am the Ravens and Troy Smith is the best QB on my Roster, then I am probably gonna look for a franchise QB and you have many more options taking one with the #8 pick then the #39 pick. It should be the scouts and front office responsibility to determine which QB will fit the system and at what point in the draft he should be taken. If you don't have a good, smart, reliable QB in this league then you are going nowhere fast so if any position is worth the risk of a high selection then it is a QB.

[CJBS]

So you don't think teams should draft QB's in the first round? I'm sorry if I am the Ravens and Troy Smith is the best QB on my Roster, then I am probably gonna look for a franchise QB and you have many more options taking one with the #8 pick then the #39 pick. It should be the scouts and front office responsibility to determine which QB will fit the system and at what point in the draft he should be taken. If you don't have a good, smart, reliable QB in this league then you are going nowhere fast so if any position is worth the risk of a high selection then it is a QB.

No my point is that takeing a "Franchise " QB in round 1 is a crap shoot. And your wrong I believe its usually the Head coach and his assitants that decided What QB is right for their system. Troy Smith is a smart QB...He did win the Heisman so he was to terrible in college. Though I am aware that at times the Heisman doesnt mean much. But every Year QB's that come out the 1st 3 are oh cant mis prospects and every year more than 50% fail. So to take a QB no doubt round 1 inst too smart. Smith hasnt been able to prove himself to anyone yet cuz the lack of team he had

[CJBS]

By the way wasnt JP Losman a first rounder who we thought was gonna be the QB and moved back into the first round too get

[Buffalo1]

No my point is that takeing a "Franchise " QB in round 1 is a crap shoot. And your wrong I believe its usually the Head coach and his assitants that decided What QB is right for their system. Troy Smith is a smart QB...He did win the Heisman so he was to terrible in college. Though I am aware that at times the Heisman doesnt mean much. But every Year QB's that come out the 1st 3 are oh cant mis prospects and every year more than 50% fail. So to take a QB no doubt round 1 inst too smart. Smith hasnt been able to prove himself to anyone yet cuz the lack of team he had

All I am saying is if I ran a team I would rather had excess talent and depth at the QB position before any other position and the Ravens are quite thin there. Also, when I was talking about the front office and scouts choosing the right QB to for the system I was referring to the scouting end of things. The coaches will work with the FO personel so everyone is on the same page and the scouts are the guys out doing the leg work and real time analyzing while the coaches manage the current team.

[CJBS]

I understand BUFFALO1........if we were that good at scouting and drafting im sure we would have a job in football rather than discussing on boards.... I say Smith is gonna be good and sake of arguement who is th back up in INDY I only know cuz I live in Wisconsin and he was a Badger but is he really that good no. But Manning in front help a major ton sothey dont believe in the Alot of good QB theory.

[Buffalo1]

smith will be another danny wuerful/rex grossman and I were not a spectacular engineer then I would be in some sort of coaching/scouting, IMO. Jim Sorgi is the backup your tqlking about and is he good? The colts do not have to test his ability because they drafted a stud QB who will keep there team playoff viable for another years to come, so it doesn't matter if Sorgi is good. It does matter if your #2 is good when you have a horrible offense and Troy Smith is your starter, not setting a very high ceiling (hint there backup is Boller = not good). We shall see if the Ravens feel comfortable in their QB situation come draft time.

[CJBS]

You Number 2 has to be good look at the Bills if it wernt for Frank Reich being half way good we would have never made it deep into the playoffs a couple years. Correct it is Jim Sorgi. And what is also the common thread of these team with Franchise QB's tremendous OL

[Buffalo1]

A good OL is where it all begins, without that your QB will amount to little regardless of who he is..

[Buffalo1]

Just Updated my mock