Series 3-1: ODDS IMPROVE IMMENSELY

[Southside]

Well, only 2 teams have pulled off the 3-0 comeback, but :
Check out how many have comeback from at least 3-1 to win a series:


Year Winning Team
2004 Montreal Canadiens
2003 Minnesota Wild
2003 Vancouver Canucks
2003 Minnesota Wild
2000 New Jersey Devils
1999 St. Louis Blues
1998 Edmonton Oilers
1995 Pittsburgh Penguins
1994 Vancouver Canucks
1992 Pittsburgh Penguins
1992 Vancouver Canucks
1992 Detroit Red Wings
1991 St. Louis Blues
1990 Edmonton Oilers
1989 Los Angeles Kings
1988 Washington Capitals
1987 Detroit Red Wings
1987 New York Islanders
1975 New York Islanders
1942 Toronto Maple Leafs


There's always room for one more.....

Southside

[ricogarion]

So much in competitive sports and in life is about belief in oneself,the mind is a powerful thing,the more you feel good about yourself the farther you can go.

[jheigl]

I would like to know how those 3-1 series' are broken down though. I mean if the series is 2-0, then 2-1, then 3-1, it seems like it would be alot easier to come back than it would be when you have to win the 4 in a row like the Sabres...maybe not, just stating my thoughts....thanks for those stats!

[TommyV26]

4 in a row is a lot to be honest... but its not like we didn't have a 4 game winning streak before... it'll be tough to win 3 more... but 2 are in our house... if we go to game 7 and forget the results of game 1 and 2 in our house...

[Thumper]

And I bet the odds for being down 3-2 in a series and coming back to win are even better. Who cares? The Sabres are still trying to come back from being down 3 games to 0. That doesn't change just because they won 1.

[bdutton]

I shoot competitively (bullseye) and have won my share of matches.

In precision shooting, there is only one thing you focus on. The current shot. What happened during the last shot is forgotten and when lies after the current shot is not on my mind.

This has to be the mindset of the Sabres. Focus purely on the current play and play your best. You do that, the best will win.

[Gibby]

how many teams have come back from 3-2? I only ask because as long as you are alive you are alive. :sabres:

[Mouldsie]

are you guys serious with this faulty logic?

[pi2000]

How many have come back from being down 3-1 after losing the first two on home ice as the number 1 seed playing the #4 seed w/ a black goalie?

[rufc05]

are you guys serious with this faulty logic?

I agree that it is faulty logic in some ways. But it is correct logic in other ways. Statistically speaking, the only thing that matters now is that it is 3-1. In statistics the past doesn't matter.

[foster]

I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of 0-3's are teams that lose the first 3 with the first two on the road and end up playing 5 and 7 away...

I wonder how many teams down 0-3 have taken the series to a game 7.

[foster]

With all the talk about the Islanders comeback in 1975 - it's interesting to note that they came back from 0-3 twice that year, ultimately losing to Philly in a game 7.

From the Islanders website:

http://www.newyorkislanders.com/team/history/keyIslesDates.asp

April 26, 1975 - The Islanders come back from a three games to none deficit to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in the second round of the playoffs. Westfall scores with just over five minutes left in regulation and Resch makes 30 saves in the Isles' 1-0 victory, which makes them the second team in NHL history (Toronto, 1942) to make such a comeback.

May 12, 1975 - In the semifinals, the Islanders fall behind three games to none, this time to the Philadelphia Flyers, but rally once again to force another Game Seven with a 2-1 win at home. Gerry Hart's third period goal snapped a 1-1 tie to clinch the victory.

[stafford669]

the ottawa fans are getting nervous i saw it on their board,wooooooooooo,blow the roof off tommorrow afternoon!

[TheAnswer74]

1st #1 seed ever to be down 0-3 and win game 4. There were 4 others, all got swept.

[Mouldsie]

I agree that it is faulty logic in some ways. But it is correct logic in other ways. Statistically speaking, the only thing that matters now is that it is 3-1. In statistics the past doesn't matter.

true... but the fact is we were down 0-3 so if we come back that's how its being marked down. as the 3rd time not the 18th.

[Southside]

I am glad I posted this info for one very simple reason:
Stats can mean anything that we want them to mean.

IT is intersting to note that all of those teams have exactly one thing in common: a statistical anamoly.

One of Sports ultimately useless stats is the "historical record" as in "the Senators have choked against (insert team here) 78 times since their inception".

Scientifically, stats like the thread starter I posted have far to many variablesto really be anything more than vaguely supportive of the position that the person who uses them wants.

Realistically, the 42 Leafs had played a wholly different game than the ones that the 75 Isles did, or for that matter this years Sabres.

For instance, remember "the winning streak" to begin the Season?
How many Leafers howled about the Sabres and that they couldnt really break their record because of the shootout? How about all of them.

What you might not have known was that when the Leafs "broke" the record all those years ago, they did so with the benefit of overtime which is something that the previous record holder didnt have.

My only point in starting this thread was throw another reason out there to find hope and support. Statistically, it can be argued that each team has exactly the same odds each game of beating another--like a coin toss, if you would. You just factor "out" artifical variables (7 game series, pressure from the media, numbers of times that they have played etc...).

IMHO, though...the artificial variable of stress and pressure will exponentially increase upon the Sens as this series progresses. And thats fine with me.

We're gonna stomp 'em this afternoon!!!!!! Look for the Green Sabres Jersey with the Green hat in the shoot twice end!

Best,
Southside