Unlucky Number

[opdrift]

:mad4: In a worst-case scenario . . .
if there are a few more nights on which the Sabres
(like last night) decide not to show up at all,
and they get caught by Ottawa,
all of a sudden they're the Number 4 seed in the East.
and would have to play Pittsburgh-- or New Jersey
if Pittsburgh catches the Devils--in the first round.

It's mathematically possible that they could finish
with the second most points in the NHL, and NEVER have
home-ice advantage after the first round. (since the division
winners are seeded higher regardless of record).
Play like last night means an entire exceptional season
is put in jeopardy by a lousy last ten days.

Let's hope it doesn't play out this way.

[stepsukie]

are you pessimistic by nature?

[Maz]

that's a scary thought!

[Sabres244]

are you pessimistic by nature?

pretty much all Buffalo fans are...

[Sabres244]

no worries anyway we play Boston,Washington and Philly our last 3 games....assume win all 3 we'd need to win just 1 of the next 4 games.

[CoachC.]

Then again, if they play like they did for the previous 74 games, mathematically, they're virtually guaranteed to win the Stanley Cup:

They had won 48 of 74 games, which is 65%.
65% = 4.5 wins for every 7 games (a playoff series).

[two4trippn]

Buck up lil camper, we'll make that hill together!

[opdrift]

Actually, there's a problem in applying that reasoning to a playoff series. If a team wins 60% or 70% or 99% of the games in an 82-game season, but happens to lose the first two or even three games of a series, there aren't enough remaining games for them to revert to the mathematical norm. Being good enough to go 70/30 or 80/20 or 90/10, unfortunately, is offset by WHEN those losses occur. In the playoffs, you don't have the luxury of losing four games and winning the next forty. As the Western Conference Playoffs showed last year, momentum at the right moment trumps past accomplishments, or even overall ability. I may or may not have been a pessimist by nature before, but last night's first period, the rules by which teams are seeded, and the run of success Ottawa and Pittsburgh have had--those have got me feeling more gloomy.
I was at the game the last time the Bisons won the Calder Cup, so a certain amount of pessimism may be inevitable given the realities of a long historical memory.