here is an awesome article by an economist

[emo]

about the draft.

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.25173/pub_detail.asp

[JLB]

Cool read thanks Patriots smart Redskins dumb sounds about right.

[Merk]

good find

[Buffalo13]

It's nice to have a ton of draft picks...but you still have to choose the correct players. Oh, and the Redskins are dumb.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

It's nice to have a ton of draft picks...but you still have to choose the correct players. Oh, and the Redskins are dumb.

Yes, but more draft picks in lower rounds means more chances+less $ invested per player=less risk.

[Nott Scoregood]

He forgot one thing. You need to get fans excited about your team to fill seats. Every year there are only about two or three guys that right off the bat put fans in your seats. 2006 brought Reggie Bush and Vince Young. Feel free to add to this if I've left anyone out. You need to spend some $$ on a big name to put out on the field for experience, leadership, and star power. The article is on point, but not 100% accurate. You couldn't build a successful NFL team on that strategy alone.

[emo]

He forgot one thing. You need to get fans excited about your team to fill seats. Every year there are only about two or three guys that right off the bat put fans in your seats. 2006 brought Reggie Bush and Vince Young. Feel free to add to this if I've left anyone out. You need to spend some $$ on a big name to put out on the field for experience, leadership, and star power. The article is on point, but not 100% accurate. You couldn't build a successful NFL team on that strategy alone.

pats fans were thrilled when they drafted richard seymour. nice try. You don't need a wow factor when you make a draft pick. Winning cures fans disinterest

[Nott Scoregood]

No, but if you don't draft a "wow factor" you'll need to go out and sign one. A team full of rookies, especially middle-late round ones, isn't going to win anything, or at least enough to generate excitement. Pats fans would get excited if they drafted Clay Aiken because all of the "experts" would immediately go on record saying what a great pick he was and how Bellichek was a genius for picking him, just to further kiss New England's butt.

[emo]

No, but if you don't draft a "wow factor" you'll need to go out and sign one. A team full of rookies, especially middle-late round ones, isn't going to win anything, or at least enough to generate excitement. Pats fans would get excited if they drafted Clay Aiken because all of the "experts" would immediately go on record saying what a great pick he was and how Bellichek was a genius for picking him, just to further kiss New England's butt.

no, you don't. Winning, that's all it takes, or a fans base that is more then 3 times the size of your stadium where tickets will be sold out for years in advance

who was hte wow factor for the seahawks? shaun alexander? he was't a wow fguy when he was drafted, it certainly wasn't hasselbeck.

[1968_bills_fan]

I have reservations about what the economist has written. He is making the assumption that there is a very similar chance of getting a good player in the later rounds, so that getting more draft picks (e.g. rolling the dice more) gives you a better chance of getting a good player. What he is literally discounting is that the first 20 players have a high chance to be a much superior player and that the best players are usually in the first 100 or so (first 3 rounds of the draft). You might get a gem from a lower round, but its more of a gamble because those players usually have some fault (a little too slow, inferior competition, too small, projected at a new position etc.) and are a bigger risk. Often you can get 4th->7th round players to make the team, but they usually do not become the superior players that you need to consistently be a play-off team. A good summary of drafting strategies is in the Great Blue Norther draft report at: http://www.gbnreport.com/drafttheories.htm . I really want to follow the "best athlete available strategy" so you can eventually come up with more superior players rather than a bunch of solid but average upgrades of your weakest points. (note that if you have superman playing a position, you can pass on superman#2 at that position in the draft). .... so the plan should be to maximize the picks in the first 3 rounds by trying to get [2 picks is the 20's to 40's] and 2 or more in the 40's to 100. After that look for players that have dedication and might be underrated or from small schools (N.Dakoda State, MAC etc.).