emo
November 24th, 2006, 9:37:42 AM
Let us begin this draft theory article with a cautionary tale, one that should be familiar to astute draftniks but still bears repeating for the record.Even though the following is not a tale from the football world, the relative simplicity of the this draft structure and starting roster requirements in this example lends more relevance to the football draft than most would realize. A draft is a draft; the setting of this story simply has fewer variables than the current manifestation of the greatest selection process in the greatest of sports: the NFL draft.
In 1984 the Portland Trailblazers had a roster full of talented guards and small forwards (including Clyde Drexler), and logic dictated they needed a center to complete the puzzle. Their pick was second overall, just out of reach of the real premium center that year, current Hall-of-Famer, Hakeem "the Dream" Olajuwon out of Houston University's Phi Slamma Jamma.
The consensus second best player was an explosive and dynamic player from North Carolina, a young shooting guard by the name of Michael Jordan. But the Blazers didn't need a guard, they needed a big man.
Hence they picked for need and selected Sam Bowie out of Kentucky, letting the best available player (a.k.a. the BPA or the BAP) fall to the Chicago Bulls picking third and the rest is history. Bowie had an injury-addled career as a journey-man and Jordan went on to be what many consider the greatest of all time (a.k.a. the G.O.A.T.). It should also be noted that future Dream-Teamers Charles Barkley and John Stockton were picked at 5 and 16 respectively.
So what's the moral here? Always draft the best available player and forget about need, right? Well, that was a quick draft theory entry. Class dismissed.
Wait, hold on a second. As noted earlier the NFL draft is not nearly as simple as this example; an NFL team has to fill over four times the amount of starting slots as an NBA team and has to deal with hard salary cap constraints.
more
http://www.draftdaddy.com/theory/vol1num1.cfm
In 1984 the Portland Trailblazers had a roster full of talented guards and small forwards (including Clyde Drexler), and logic dictated they needed a center to complete the puzzle. Their pick was second overall, just out of reach of the real premium center that year, current Hall-of-Famer, Hakeem "the Dream" Olajuwon out of Houston University's Phi Slamma Jamma.
The consensus second best player was an explosive and dynamic player from North Carolina, a young shooting guard by the name of Michael Jordan. But the Blazers didn't need a guard, they needed a big man.
Hence they picked for need and selected Sam Bowie out of Kentucky, letting the best available player (a.k.a. the BPA or the BAP) fall to the Chicago Bulls picking third and the rest is history. Bowie had an injury-addled career as a journey-man and Jordan went on to be what many consider the greatest of all time (a.k.a. the G.O.A.T.). It should also be noted that future Dream-Teamers Charles Barkley and John Stockton were picked at 5 and 16 respectively.
So what's the moral here? Always draft the best available player and forget about need, right? Well, that was a quick draft theory entry. Class dismissed.
Wait, hold on a second. As noted earlier the NFL draft is not nearly as simple as this example; an NFL team has to fill over four times the amount of starting slots as an NBA team and has to deal with hard salary cap constraints.
more
http://www.draftdaddy.com/theory/vol1num1.cfm